In his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 20, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney promised a new Canadian approach to foreign policy. He called it “variable geometry,” pursuing “different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests.” In Carney’s mind, the global situation required middle powers — such as Canada — to seek a “third path” and avoid subjugation to great powers, or intense competition among themselves in pursuit of a “fortress” mentality. This third path would see middle powers combining their strengths to sustain a rules-based, values-infused global order. The US president, Donald Trump, was not amused.
Now, variable geometry, a third path, has begun to take shape in Canada’s Arctic diplomacy. Its beginning has been marked by an intense phase of bilateral meetings between the prime minister and the leaders of the Nordic countries — Denmark, Sweden, Norway and, most recently, Finland — all in a few short months between January and April 2026. Strategic partnerships were declared across a range of common interests, including defence, critical minerals, technology, climate change and energy. Improved intelligence sharing between Canada and the Nordics was also a theme.
The high point came in March, when the prime minister met with all the leaders of the Nordic countries. The official statement of the talks emphasized the collective understanding of the importance of advancing Arctic defence and security cooperation. The promise was to look for ways to collaborate on defence production, defence capabilities, infrastructure protection and countermeasures against hybrid threats, and to develop “interoperable, innovative and dual-use technologies.”
The closing paragraph of the joint statement read: “Together, the Nordic countries and Canada constitute a formidable partnership. We commit to deepening this, and to develop our cooperation on the basis of respect, trust and shared values and interests.”
Important steps are required to translate diplomacy into strengthened cooperation on Arctic security. Canada’s annual military training exercise in the Arctic — Operation Nanook — has just concluded, but aside from a small Danish contingent to observe a Ranger patrol, no other Nordic nation took part. In the future, Operation Nanook should be transformed into a major pan-Nordic exercise, so that the Arctic nations can become familiar with operating together in the world’s most challenging environment. That would be a start.
Canada must also step up to contribute to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) Arctic Sentry mission announced in February 2026. Arctic Sentry’s official purpose is to demonstrate the alliance’s capacity to deter any aggression in the region around Greenland, all in response to the Trump administration’s threats to take over the island because of its alleged security vulnerability.
Canada must also make a firm commitment to join NATO’s rapid-response Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). In the years since its establishment in 2014, the JEF has increasingly turned its attention to Arctic missions, and Canada would now be a natural partner and recipient of several hard-won lessons on Russian hybrid-warfare capabilities and activities. And, yet, still we sit on the sidelines.
Canada declined to take part in JEF back in 2014, not seeing its value, but the world has changed since then. We were given a clear signal of the desirability of Canadian involvement when the president of Finland invited Carney to take part, for the first time, in a virtual meeting of the JEF leaders on March 26. The brief read-out discussed Canada’s commitment to Arctic security and recognition of an evolving security environment. Carney “welcomed the JEF’s role” and “looked forward to continued engagement with JEF members,” but this statement clearly fell short of a promise to join.
Canada’s minister of national defence, David McGuinty, has indicated that his first priority is rebuilding the Canadian military. The JEF question was for the future, he said, adding, “We’ll get there.” Better, however, would be to join now and reap the benefits as the Canadian armed forces modernize and re-equip with everything from new rifles to drones, fighter jets and submarines.
Rebuilding the Canadian military and re-equipping it for a prominent Arctic security mission is a long-haul enterprise likely to take at least a decade, but the government should act now to link its Nordic middle-power diplomacy to a Nordic-centred military commitment. This strategy would include stepping up multilateral training in Arctic exercises, joining the JEF, committing actual military capabilities to NATO’s Arctic Sentry, enhancing intelligence sharing, pursuing joint military capability development and building effective relationships with Nordic countries to strengthen Canada’s defence industrial base. That would be middle-power variable geometry: not declared but demonstrated.
