AI National Security Scenarios

Special Report

February 6, 2026

On March 26, 2025, the Global AI Risks Initiative at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Privy Council Office of Canada co-hosted a full-day, in-person scenarios workshop in Ottawa, Ontario, to explore existing and emerging implications for national security posed by next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) systems. This summary report contains policy recommendations that are intended to stimulate and enrich discussion among policy makers and the broader public. It is composed of three parts: an executive summary highlighting key messages drawn from the workshop discussions and background literature; a detailed description of key uncertainties and five possible future AI scenarios and implications considered at the workshop, adapted from the background paper shared with participants in advance of the workshop; and an appendix summarizing key points from the workshop discussion.

About the Authors

Duncan Cass-Beggs is executive director of the Global AI Risks Initiative at CIGI, focusing on developing innovative governance solutions to address current and future global issues relating to artificial intelligence.

Former Senior Research Associate and Program Manager, Global AI Risks Initiative