Prime Minister Mark Carney’s special address at Davos will go down in history as a momentous speech. It builds on the values-based pragmatism that Carney has written about for years and that has shaped his politics as he leads the country. What stands out most is his unabashed stance on the role of middle powers in today’s global order, as well as the need to increase strategic autonomy by working together to avoid isolated fortresses. This is as true in space as it is on Earth.
As Carney stated, “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” What makes this geopolitical moment so important is that emerging and disruptive technologies are moving fast and have an unprecedented impact on power dynamics. In the next three to five years, whichever countries hold the keys to quantum sensors, artificial intelligence (AI) computing, space capabilities and data processing will have a stronghold on geopolitics for the rest of the century. This includes holding the keys to the critical minerals and raw materials needed for components, as well as the intellectual capital and skilled workforce that underpin these technologies.
As such, Canada finds itself in a golden moment historically, diplomatically and technologically, and should seize it with zeal to leverage the nation’s role as a space middle power.
Space Affairs Are Earth Affairs
Space-based capabilities are critical to our everyday lives, providing connectivity for everythingfrom internet and telecommunications services — particularly important for remote areas — to navigation apps for personal use, as well as for global transport and trade. From banking with a mobile app to buying a coffee with your phone or watch, to precision timing for global finance and trade markets, we depend on satellites.
Beyond their ubiquity in our daily lives, satellites are critical for national security and the economy. They are also thoroughly implicated in geopolitical interactions and warfare, with militaries depending on satellites for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, communications and navigation. Space technologies are everywhere, and space is a domain where geopolitics are playing out.
However, because of how critical they are, space-based technologies are being targeted and interfered with regularly, as an effective means for adversaries to compromise each other’s eyes and ears. This happens in peacetime, for example, with signal jamming, and in wartime, through attacks such as the cyberattack in 2022 on a satellite system belonging to Viasat, a US company that provides telecommunications across Ukraine and neighbouring countries.
There have been key multilateral discussions on space security at the United Nations for several years to prevent an arms race in space and to agree on what might be “responsible behaviours” in space. As is to be expected, these discussions are often stalled by political divides between China, Russia and supporting states, on the one side, and Western allies and like-minded nations, on the other. My observations of these discussions suggest that Canada has always played a strong, trusted role, as it does in international security and diplomacy across a range of issues.
However, in recent months, other middle powers and many smaller nations have been turning to Canada as the guiding light. Canadian diplomats have noted that they are sought out for input on proposals, support for initiatives and advice on how to best move agendas forward. And many nations are simply setting aside the US position on these discussion points. Now, with Carney having made it very explicit that Canada embraces its role as a strong middle power, there is an opportunity for Canada to push beyond traditional dividing lines and strive for bolder solutions in space diplomacy.
A Falling Giant
Moreover, the United States is losing its dominant position in space, as a range of US government departments have faced significant cuts over the last year, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and various agencies that regulate or contribute to satellite programs. There is a fading clarity about US national space priorities, including the funding, timeline and goals of the flagship Artemis program to return to the Moon.
Indeed, it appears China will lead the lunar race, having been the first country to successfully land on the far side of the Moon in 2021, and with a strong follow-on Chang’e mission this year, it appears to be right on track to launch its crewed lunar mission by 2030. This leaves key Artemis partners, such as Canada, the European Union and Australia, among others, wondering what’s next for their own technological, political and financial investments.
As Carney said, “Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses,” and the same applies to rocket launch capabilities, satellite connectivity, ground stations and data management.
Historically, Canada’s space capability and workforce development have been driven by US needs. Rather than continue to tether ourselves to NASA space programs and US military space technology needs while watching Canadian technologies waver, the better path is to accelerate different international partnerships and determine the values that will underpin cooperation.
Carney’s approach using “variable geometry, in other words, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests,” already influenced a major investment into Canada’s partnership with the European Space Agency in 2025, which aligns with our comprehensive strategic partnership with the region. And with Canada’s new strategic partnership with China, opportunities to cooperate and even collaborate on space technologies could arise. This would be a monumental game-changer economically and geopolitically.
There is also the opportunity to build on our partnerships with smaller nations, to decide how we can forge ahead in space as cooperative collectives. At Davos, Carney referred to “negotiating free trade pacts with India” — a strong space power — and with “ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines and Mercosur” — all space middle powers or emerging space nations, all of which could open doors for shared space infrastructure. Space technologies are critical, but they remain expensive and challenging. As Carney said, “Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses,” and the same applies to rocket launch capabilities, satellite connectivity, ground stations and data management.
Civil space partnerships on advanced satellite communications, Earth observation and position, and navigation and timing systems (such as the Global Positioning System) can address shared needs and interests. They can also serve “soft power” desires, and forging more secure space technology partnerships means Canada can further shape and influence the power relationships and technological dependencies throughout the rest of this century.
This thinking reflects the way Canada is seen more generally in this geopolitical moment. A country trusted by many, and with trade and technology partnership relationships around the globe, Canada has always been a respected middle power. But now it is perhaps the middle power of the day.
Leveraging the geopolitical moment Canada is in would mean the same thing in space as in other domains: combining diplomatic strengths, civil and commercial space strengths, and military space capabilities. Canada would need to determine which military capabilities require sovereignty and which can be pursued in partnership, and with whom there are greater benefits to collaboration. As other countries look to Canada to lead the way in space diplomacy, we can also lead the way in space collaborations on the civil and military sides. After all, the rest of this century depends upon that collaboration.
