The foundations of global geopolitics, economics and security are undergoing profound shifts, and long-held assumptions about trade, defence and markets are no longer holding. Middle powers — defined here as states exerting strategic and economic influence internationally while avoiding reliance on military coercion — are facing increased pressure to choose sides and make concessions that undermine their interests, particularly in the wake of the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China.
Yet alongside this turbulence lies a historic opening. With the great powers becoming increasingly unreliable and pulling the world toward a more polarized and transactional order, a coalition of middle powers could chart a new path: a global middle power trade, security and digital alliance. Faced with the old order breaking down, we are at a global inflection point — a moment when a rare opportunity for middle-power repositioning has emerged. This alliance would serve as a flexible platform for coordinated “united front” action among states committed to the rule of law, peace and human rights, but unwilling to be subsumed into the orbit of any of the great powers.
The alliance could offer middle powers the potential to influence global decision making in ways that are difficult to accomplish when each middle power acts individually: namely, united as a formal alliance, middle powers assume a distinctive identity and level of influence on the global stage, whose coordinated stances great powers cannot readily overlook.. By standing together, middle powers gain a degree of insulation from great-power pressure that individual states lack. And as a group, the alliance enhances members’ ability to shape global rules through pooled economic, diplomatic, digital and security capacities.
A Networked Alliance for a Fragmented Era
Potential alliance members span the globe, from Europe (for example, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom) to the Americas (for instance, Brazil, Canada, Chile and Mexico) and the Afro-Indo-Pacific regions (including Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Africa and South Korea). Middle powers already participate in a dense web of bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements, digital initiatives, defence forums and regulatory partnerships. While these arrangements are an important base, what has been missing is a visible, institutional focal point that brings middle powers together as an identifiable collective global actor in their own right — one that helps members identify gaps, protect their interests, develop united fronts, coordinate positions and pool capabilities on an issue-by-issue basis.
The proposed middle-powers alliance would provide this institutional entity. It would not be a substitute for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Mercosur, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union, the African Union, the Group of Twenty (G20) and the World Trade Organization. Instead, it would co-exist and interact with these global and regional entities, allowing middle powers to assert their distinct positions while simultaneously collaborating in flexible clusters, depending on the issue at hand.
What binds these middle states together is not ideology but conviction in the importance of values-based cooperative autonomy.
The alliance’s modus operandi would revolve around flexible modular cooperation anchored in shared values. Specific middle-power initiatives could include a multi-region middle-power trade bloc, a coordinated maritime border-security network or a shared cyber-defence rapid-response system. Such alternatives would reduce pressure on middle powers to adopt approaches driven by the great powers. It also reflects the emerging practice of multi-alignment, in which states engage fluidly across multiple levels rather than locking into structures framed by the great powers.
What binds these middle states together is not ideology but conviction in the importance of values-based cooperative autonomy: namely, the determination to act independently, but not alone. In today’s quadripolar world — dominated by the United States as the comprehensive power, China as the assertive challenger, India as the emerging strategic balancer and Russia as the disruptive revanchist — middle powers face both new maneuvering space and heightened vulnerabilities. A coordinated alliance across trade, security and technology becomes essential to turning strategic fluidity into structured influence. Participation by smaller powers and even sub-national entities (such as cities) in the alliance — in non-voting roles, for example — could also be considered.
Why Canada Should Take a Leadership Role
Among all prospective alliance members, Canada is particularly well-positioned to take a lead role in the creation of this proposed middle-powers alliance. First, with its educated, diverse, multilingual and multicultural population, Canada is widely perceived as a trusted convenor and broker on the international stage, with diplomatic credibility across Africa, the Americas, Europe and the Indo-Pacific regions. Its foreign policy identity as a bridge-builder, problem-solver and consensus-builder aligns well with the leadership needed to assemble a coalition of diverse middle powers.
Second, Canada possesses substantial experience in shaping and stewarding multilateral regimes: from peacekeeping missions and development compacts to digital governance, landmine treaties, environmental frameworks and major trade agreements.
Third, Canada is geographically and economically tied to multiple regions, enabling it to act as a connector rather than a proxy of any single power centre. Its extensive network of bilateral and multilateral agreements could provide a strong foundation.
Finally, Canada stands to gain an enhanced degree of autonomy. By helping construct and operate an alliance of like-minded middle powers, Canada would strengthen its international profile and capacity to pursue strategic, economic and technological goals independent of oscillating great-power dynamics. Domestically, a middle-powers alliance could catalyze a coherent “northern fortress” strategy, integrating economic resilience, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure protection and digital governance in alignment with alliance priorities.
Leadership in this context does not imply dominance — only initiative, credibility and the ability to convene. Canada has all three. Across each region, diverse middle powers would similarly assume leadership roles, making multi-country leadership essential to the alliance’s success.
In terms of next steps, a multi-stakeholder exploration coordinated by middle-power universities and think tanks could be undertaken. Academic leadership at this early stage — rather than leadership by individual governments — could provide insulation from potential reprisals that a state-led proposal might trigger. The exploration could begin with regional white papers and consultations, followed by a lightly institutionalized interim secretariat and culminating in a virtual conference to refine principles and launch initial opt-in initiatives.
A Hinge Moment Middle Powers Cannot Ignore
The global order is moving into a more contested, dynamic and fragmented phase. Middle powers cannot count on great powers to rebuild the rules-based system in ways that reflect their values and interests; failure to act collectively at this moment of opportunity will mean allowing others to determine their fate.
By forming a pragmatic and flexible global middle-power alliance, member countries can become a stabilizing force that promotes the rule of law, low-tariff trade and peace in an increasingly unstable world. A middle-powers alliance would not replace existing institutions or seek to dominate global politics. Instead, it would provide middle powers with the collective capacity to defend their autonomy, project their values, enhance prosperity and shape the rules-based order of a new global era.
Canada, with its mix of credibility, connectivity and strategic alignment, is well-positioned to play a lead role in this effort, working alongside other influential middle powers.
At this moment of global flux, a unique opportunity has emerged for middle powers to take considerably greater control over their collective destinies. The constructive tone taken in the South African G20 deliberations (sans the United States) and reflected in the final leaders’ statement can perhaps be seen as an indication of the distinctive and important role that could be played on the international stage if there was a formal middle power alliance operating alongside and interacting with the existing global players. The question is whether these middle powers will have the foresight, imagination and courage to act — or whether they will allow others to determine their future.
